Abstract
Agricultural production is the main source of income for most rural communities in Ethiopia. Currently climate change and variability is emerging as a major threat to agricultural crop production by smallholder farmers in the Gozamin district, Northern Ethiopia. The farmers in the study area depend on rain-fed agricultural activities on relatively small farms. The general objective of the study was to evaluate the adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers’ to increase crop production under the changing climatic conditions at Gozamin District, East Gojam Zone, Ethiopia.
Specific objectives were to identify existing adaptation strategies to improve crop production; and identify factors that affect the choice of crop production adaptation strategies under the changing climatic conditions at Gozamin district. The study used quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Three representative sample kebeles, namely Enerata, Wonka and Desa Enesie from dega, woyna dega and kola kebeles respectively were selected from three agro-ecologies using simple random sampling procedures. Simple random sampling technique was used to select 132 households from three selected kebels. Multivariate probit model was used to identify factors that determine crop production adaptation strategies. The result of the study showed that different crop production adaptation strategies were undertaken by the smallholder farmers in the study area to minimize the impact of climate change and variability related hazards. The likelihood of households to adopt use of fertilizer, crop diversification, irrigation, and improved seeds were 75.8%, 53%, 39.4% and 72.8% respectively. Tree plantation and soil and water conservation practices were also used as a climate change and variability adaptation methods. The result also revealed that the joint probability of using all crop production adaptation strategies was 23.5% and the probability of failure to adopt one of the crop production adaptation strategies was 13.6%. The major sources of income in the study area were on-farm activities mainly from sale of crops. Off-farm and non-farm activities were also other sources of income for some of the sample households in the district. Multivariate probit model results also confirmed that Agro-ecology, climate information, education level, sex, age, farm income, off/non-farm income, extension, credit used and distance to market have a significant impact on the adoption of crop production adaptation strategies. Generally, future policies should focus on the smallholder farmers’ technical capacity through adult education system and on updated extension services in line with the prevailing climatic condition, improving irrigation facilities, credit facilities, road accessibilities, farm and off-farm income earning opportunities, and use of new crop varieties that may be more suited to the local environment.
Keywords: Adaptation strategies, climate change and variability, crop production, multivariate probit model, smallholder farmers.
